Impact of climate change on maize yield in South Bulgaria
Bulgarian Journal of Meteorology and Hydrology
Sustainability of maize grain yields is studied at one of the hottest and driest agricultural region in Bulgaria - Stara Zagora by model simulations. WINISAREG model, previously validated for two maize hybrids of different resistance to water stress in a vertisol and a chromic cambisol soils, is used. Simulations are performed for present and scenario built weather conditions that include a pessimistic scenario of precipitation decrease in the next 25 years. Results indicate that vulnerability to climate change is higher for non-irrigated crops on the soil of average/low water holding capacity (chromic cambisol). Coping with possible rainfall decreases requires adopting less sensitive crop varieties, including when deficit irrigation would be applied for water saving.